Increasing Likelihood of a Paul Win


See a great article that reflects this thought [@ Nolan Chart]!


4 Responses to Increasing Likelihood of a Paul Win

  1. Axaday says:

    Moving from 11 options to 5 options only increases likelihood in random events, such as dice games.

  2. saintluke says:

    Not true.

    I’m not relying on the statistics of randomness – I am talking about about the ACTUAL case of the reasons surrounding the situation.

    At 11, and along the way, if the votes had not come to Paul at all, he would likely have dropped out earlier.

    With less candidates, the other votes have to shift somewhere.

    Even Kucinich’s votes from the Democratic side (though almost nothing) may come to Ron Paul. Many of Thompson’s votes may come to Ron Paul.

    Also the longer he stays in as a candidate- the less the media can ignore him, which is one of the reasons he isn’t getting votes that would other wise come to him. Many still don’t know who he is. Especially because of things like NOT SHOWING his face on displays of winning candidates (when he won more than the ones they showed), or giving him 6 min in a debate while they give Romney 21 minutes.

    He is more visible now than before, and more credible. And just as real, and serious, and as much more knowledgeable than the other candidates as always.

  3. Axaday says:

    As long as the subject of your blog is that Ron Paul is a good candidate and OUGHT to win, I can respect it. When it slips into saying he MIGHT win, it is a fantasy. Ron Paul is not going to win. The reason he was not going to win a week ago wasn’t because of the 6 people with x’s on their faces in your picture. They were not grabbing the attention that Ron Paul needed. I can only name one of them. (And whoever made the picture neglected to notice that Alan Keyes is running for President which actually leaves the remaining total of at least 6 candidates.) McCain, Huckabee, and Romney have been getting the attention that Ron Paul needs and they will continue to get the attention that he needs. And even two of THEM aren’t going to win.

    The other people who have dropped out didn’t do it because they suddenly realized that they wouldn’t win. They’ve known for quite a while that they weren’t going to win, just as Ron Paul has known for quite a while that he isn’t going to win. They dropped out because they ran out of money and could not continue to campaign. Ron Paul hasn’t run out of money yet.

    Now I’m willing to accept the statistical possibility that if Ron Paul had a year before Super Tuesday he could get his message out and win the nomination. But he doesn’t have a year. He has 9 days. And I can’t imagine what he could do in 9 days (or even a year really) that he hasn’t had plenty of opportunity to do for the last 6 months. I always assumed he just didn’t have money, but that’s not it. He’s had more money than any other Republican (save Romney, of course) for this whole time. He’s had the money to do whatever he needed to do and hasn’t been able to turn it into votes. That’s just how it is.

  4. Phillip D says:

    I heartily agree with you, Saint Luke.

    A lot of people say that God is a fantasy too, but saying something that you don’t like is a fantasy doesn’t change the facts.

    The fact that Ron Paul has come as far as he has (with plenty of money left, with plenty of supporters and growing, and with a brokered convention in sight) against all hostile media, against all foes saying that he is irrelevant and a long shot, against most implying that he is going to have to run third party, against an unfair near media blackout, against tinkering with the system in LA to favor his opponents, against not having anything to do with the CFR, NAFTA, CAFTA, nor the UN, and against being called kooky, far out, and unRepublican is a fact and a feat of which none of the other candidates can boast. Every step of the way has been nearly blood, sweat, and tears and yet he is still standing tall, unaffected, going strong, & raising piles of money with no strings attached from thousands of common folk like me wanting nothing but freedom for my poor little children.

    Three times he ran for Congress against incumbents and won every time (a near impossibility). He ran against redistricting in order to keep him out and he won. He is a ten time congressman who won in spite of always voting against pork spending and subsidies for his district. He is a thirty year political veteran who has studied much and knows his stuff, especially economics and Constitutional foreign and domestic policy. He is a man with a back bone like a steel ram rod and he is a man impeccable principles. And we Americans love that. He is as shrewd as a serpent and as harmless as a dove. To come as far as he has time after time in the face of impossibilities and always smelling like a rose shows that he has the hand of God on his shoulder.

    I’m not a fool to bet on anything, but if I was a betting man, I would bet money on Ron Paul’s odds. But even if Ron Paul wouldn’t win, we have a moral obligation to vote on principle and to not lick our finger and hold it to the wind before voting. Ron Paul is a man of righteous principle and he definitely isn’t checking the wind of public opinion before speaking or acting. If anyone would think such just look at how he voted nearly alone for Ronald Reagan in ’76 or against the Patriot act and against the war on Iraq just after 9-11 when he was a lonely voice in the wilderness.

    Axaday, I respect you’re right to an opinion but I cannot agree.

    Saint Luke, Keep up the great blogging.

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